The Likely Path to Survival for Dr. Abiy and the EPP: Embracing Radical Oromic-led Nationalism
By Fayyis Oromia*
Dr. Abiy Ahmed and the Ethiopian Prosperity Party (EPP) face increasing pressure from Oromo republicans and their democratic allies across Ethiopia, notably led by figures such as Dr. Lemma Megersa. In light of these mounting challenges, the only plausible route to political survival for Abiy and his party may lie in adopting a more radical stance on Oromic nationalism than that of the Oromo republicans themselves.
To achieve this shift, Dr. Abiy must take decisive actions that signal a commitment to radical Oromic principles, actions which include the following:
- Promoting Oromic as the Primary Language of the Federation
- Returning historically Oromo areas, such as Finfinné (Addis Ababa), Dire Dawa, Moyale, and Wollo, to Oromia’s administrative control
- Embracing radical Oromic nationalism (Oromummaa-led Ethiopianism)
The Political Evolution of Ethiopia
Ethiopia’s political spectrum has undergone several transformations throughout its history. During the feudal era, the divide was between monarchy and republic. Under the Derg regime, the central debate focused on the choice between capitalism and socialism. Under the TPLF (Tigray People’s Liberation Front), the central issue was the choice between ethno-federalism (language-based governance) and ethio-federalism (geography-based governance). Today, under Dr. Abiy’s leadership, the debate has evolved into a contest between pro-Amharic and pro-Oromic factions.
Historically, Amharic has dominated Ethiopia’s political, cultural, and social landscape, from the reign of Emperor Yekuno Amlak in the 13th century to the present regime. However, recent developments suggest a shift toward the pro-Oromic camp. Dr. Abiy, once aligned with the pro-Amharic bloc, seems to be leaning toward a more inclusive approach, one that acknowledges the importance of Oromummaa and its central role in Ethiopian identity. This shift has not gone unnoticed, with even international actors such as the United States appearing to support this new direction. A key step for Abiy in securing the support of the pro-Oromic camp would be to formally adopt Oromic as the primary working language of the federation, replacing Amharic.
Dr. Abiy’s rise to power was largely fueled by the support of the Amhara elite, who sought revenge against the TPLF for its long-standing dominance. However, as it becomes increasingly clear that the pro-Oromic forces are emerging as a dominant political force, Abiy must navigate this shift carefully. He has, to some extent, succeeded in uniting a coalition of both Amhara and Oromo elites by opposing the TPLF, giving the EPP a temporary political boost.
The Ascendance of the Pro-Oromic Bloc
For more than seven centuries, from the reign of Yekuno Amlak (1270) to the present day under Abiy Ahmed, the pro-Amharic bloc has maintained a firm grip on Ethiopian politics. However, recent political shifts suggest that Dr. Abiy may be the last representative of this long-standing tradition. With the successful political mobilization of the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) and other Oromo forces, Ethiopia’s political future appears increasingly oriented toward an Oromic-led vision.
The strategic blunder made by the TPLF in its military engagement with the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) has further solidified the political position of the Amhara and Oromo elites, further marginalizing Tigrayan political influence. The U.S. and other Western powers have also shown a preference for supporting Abiy’s administration, underscoring the international dimension of this evolving political landscape.
The pro-Amharic camp now faces significant challenges, particularly in Oromia, where pro-Oromic forces are gaining ground. While some factions within the Amhara elite initially supported Abiy’s opposition to the TPLF, this alliance is likely to be short-lived. The EPP’s long-term survival hinges on Dr. Abiy’s ability to fully embrace the political changes underway in Ethiopia, which may include a formal shift toward Oromic nationalism.
The Role of Oromo Republicanism in Shaping Ethiopia’s Future
The Oromo republican movement has undergone significant evolution, and there is now a tangible effort to unite various factions within the Oromo liberation forces. Historically, these groups have differed on issues such as the method of struggle (non-violent vs. armed resistance) and the ultimate political structure (a united federal Ethiopia vs. an independent Oromia). Despite these differences, a shared commitment to Oromic freedom and self-determination has become the unifying principle.
One of the primary goals of the Oromo republican movement is the dismantling of Ethiopia’s colonial and authoritarian structures, which have long been dominated by ethnic elites, including the Tigrayans during the Derg and TPLF regimes. The vision is to create a federal system rooted in democracy, self-determination, and human rights—one that can address historical grievances while establishing a more inclusive political order.
A key element of this process will be holding a referendum for the Oromo people to decide whether they wish to remain part of a reformed federal Ethiopia or pursue independence. This decision will be crucial in determining the future trajectory of Oromo politics. If the Oromo people choose to remain within Ethiopia, the republican movement will work to ensure that Oromia enjoys full autonomy and the protection of all fundamental rights. If they choose independence, the republican movement is committed to fostering peaceful relations with neighboring states.
The Potential for a Unified Oromo Front
As Ethiopia approaches its next elections, there is a growing possibility that the political contest will be between two competing forces: the Ethiopian Prosperity Party (EPP), led by Dr. Abiy and supported by Oromo prosperitans, and a powerful coalition led by Oromo republicans, including figures like Jawar Mohammed and others. The key question is whether Dr. Abiy and the EPP can continue to hold power or if the Oromo republican movement, with its commitment to radical Oromic principles, will emerge as the dominant force in Ethiopian politics.
If Dr. Abiy and the EPP wish to survive and thrive in this new political landscape, they must take immediate and concrete steps to align themselves with the emerging pro-Oromic consensus. This includes the three actions mentioned earlier: the promotion of Oromic as the primary language of the federation, the return of historically Oromo territories to Oromia, and a full embrace of Oromummaa-led Ethiopianism.
Conclusion
The political landscape in Ethiopia is undergoing a profound transformation. The pro-Amharic camp, long dominant, is now facing growing opposition from pro-Oromic forces, and Dr. Abiy Ahmed’s political survival depends on his ability to adapt to these changes. By adopting radical Oromic nationalism and taking concrete steps to align with the aspirations of the Oromo people, Abiy and the EPP may secure their place in Ethiopia’s future. However, if they fail to embrace these changes, they risk being left behind in the wake of a rapidly evolving political landscape.
Galatôma!
Read more: https://orompia.wordpress.com/2023/03/1 ... anet-bloc/