DNE - Africa
A new analysis published by the U.S. magazine Foreign Policy warns that Ethiopia is nearing a dangerous tipping point, suggesting the country could face a “Yugoslavia-style breakup” unless sweeping political reforms are pursued immediately.
The article, authored by Tewfere Mergo of the University of Waterloo and Kibene Kigila of the University of St. Gallen, argues that Ethiopia’s long history of internal power struggles and its repeated failure to uphold political agreements have pushed the state toward possible disintegration. The authors say the rapid advance of the Oromo Liberation Army and the Tigray Defense Forces toward Addis Ababa has intensified pressure on Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, raising doubts about the federal government’s ability to maintain control.
The analysis states that the federal leadership faces two bleak options: a military defeat by rebel forces or a disorderly, violent fragmentation similar to the collapse of the former Yugoslavia. It warns that years of political repression, unresolved regional border disputes, and deep mistrust between Ethiopia’s competing regions have left “no room for partial or piecemeal solutions.”
According to the authors, the international community—particularly the United States and G7 nations—must recognise that Ethiopia’s crisis can no longer be contained through limited negotiations. Instead, they urge external partners to support a comprehensive political process that includes all armed and political actors.
The proposed pathway calls for the formation of a broad transitional authority jointly led by rebel coalitions and political groups. This interim government would be responsible for stabilising the country, ensuring humanitarian access, and overseeing regional referendums on self-determination as permitted under Ethiopia’s constitution. While regions may eventually obtain greater autonomy, the authors argue that Ethiopia’s existing economic integration—including a shared market and potentially a common currency—should be preserved.
They also warn that unresolved territorial disputes between regional states remain among the most volatile triggers of future conflict. Transparent mechanisms, supported by international partners, are required to prevent renewed violence and to manage competing claims.
The analysis concludes that Ethiopia now faces a narrowing window for action. Without an urgent political overhaul and coordinated international engagement, Foreign Policy warns that the country could enter a prolonged period of instability with far-reaching consequences for the wider Horn of Africa.
Source: Foreign Policy
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