Considering Abiy wants to further destroy Tigray , Tigray can declare independence based on Article 39 of the constitution , recognized by Eritrea and confederated with Eritrea. Actually PP & its Defense chief of staff have requested Tigray to declare its independence.
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source= ... FVJvQtApUL
"Elites of Tigray (prior to the war) were proposing the following various strategies to keep or further enhance its autonomy and build a prosperous Tigray
- An independent Tigray modelled after Israel (Tegadalai Mehari Yohannes, Mekelle University Lecturer)
- A de facto State (Dr. Mehari Taddele, A prominent Scholar)
- Confederation with Ethiopia (Professor Medhane Tadesse Lecturer)
- Democratized Strong Tigray as Part of Ethiopia (Tigray Prosperity Party members)
- Autonomous Tigray as part of Ethiopia/ If not possible Independent Tigray (Tegadalai Dr. General Teklebirhan)
In my view all the above options are possible, but we need to identify the one that meets the aspirations of the Tigray people, most feasible and strategically rewarding path without disintegrating Ethiopia. Generations of Tigrayans and all other Ethiopians have died and invested all their life for the territorial integrity and development of Ethiopia and it is my strong conviction and advise to all key stakeholders including TPLF to work toward a new structure that maintains or expands the existing territory of Ethiopia by converting most of the existing federal states to sovereign states and willingly integrate them under one Union(Ethiopian Union modeled after the European Union, to the extent it is relevant). Thinking only about the independence of Tigray and ignoring the rest of Ethiopia is like throwing the baby with the bathwater and TPLF has to allocate the required resources to help the “Tigray minus Ethiopia” remains peaceful with itself and its neighbors. Ethiopian Union could progressively include willing countries in the Horn of Africa such as Eritrea, Sudan, South Sudan, Somalia and Djibouti. Therefore, I recommend the following:
- A sovereign Tigray confederated with Ethiopia and with unconditional right to leave the confederation whenever it wants. Tigray will ultimately become the political/democratic, cultural, economic and a technology center of the Horn of Africa within the next 20 to 30 years and one of the anchors and pillars of the Ethiopian Union. Tigray as a sovereign country but confederated with Ethiopia stays armed and united to defend itself and have a MOSSAD like intelligence unit that safeguards Tigrayans and their interests both in Tigray and elsewhere. The confederation could have a fully integrated & liberalized boundary, economy, monetary policy and common currency & passport and cross utilization and joint development of strategic infrastructure like electric power, multimodal transportation, education, etc. Since Oromos have similar dream of establishing a sovereign state, Tigray and Oromia could play the leading role in transforming Federal Ethiopia to Confederated Ethiopia.
- If the above scenario is not possible, the fallback scenario is the establishment of an independent Tigray legally as per the existing constitution and get recognition by United Nations through the sponsorship of post–Isaias Eritrea or Ethiopia and establishment of a confederation with Eritrea which will ultimately evolve to the Axumite Federal States by integrating additional willing states in the Horn of Africa."
