Eritrea: Washington’s Surprising Partner in Africa’s Most Unstable Corner
While many analysts consider Ethiopia a pillar of stability, this perception is an illusion. Ethiopian unity is fragile at best, as Abiy Ahmed’s government contends with active insurgencies in the Amhara region, a tenuous peace in Tigray, and a lack of legitimacy within his own Oromo ethnic group. Ethnic divisions undermine Ethiopia’s cohesion, making its stability precarious.
The Trump administration stands at a pivotal crossroads, with a rare chance to reshape the Horn of Africa by moving beyond the idealistic foreign policies of previous administrations and adopting a pragmatic approach that aligns with the region’s complex realities while advancing American interests in a volatile geopolitical landscape.
By forging a pragmatic economic, political, and military partnership with Eritrea, a country that stands as a pillar of stability in one of the world’s most volatile regions, the Horn of Africa, the United States could position Eritrea as a crucial strategic asset in enhancing regional security. Asmara has the potential to serve as a catalyst for stability, playing a pivotal role in the Sudanese civil war, countering piracy along the Red Sea, supporting Somalia in eradicating non-state actors, and ensuring secure shipping routes for international commerce. More importantly, Eritrea could help curb Iranian influence in Yemen and degrade the Houthis by providing critical real estate along the Red Sea.
The United States must confront the region’s complex realities to reinforce stability in the Horn of Africa. Sudan has been mired in a bloody civil war since 2023; Ethiopia’s perceived unity masks fragile ethnic tensions rooted in historical animosity; Somalia remains a failed state and a haven for non-state actors; Djibouti operates as a one-man dictatorship and a hub for foreign military bases; and Eritrea, a carbon copy of Enver Hoxha’s Albania, stands as a pillar of stability with its robust military, highly centralized governance, and one-party rule.
Compounding East Africa’s fragility is the escalating anarchy in Yemen, with Houthi forces destabilizing global trade through Red Sea attacks, targeting U.S. warships, and deploying surface-to-surface missiles toward Israel, further exacerbating regional volatility. The Trump administration faces a critical decision: to either relinquish its influence in East Africa to global competitors like China, Russia, and emerging power brokers such as Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and India or to counter these actors assertively.
To offset Chinese expansion and Russian influence, the United States should pursue a comprehensive engagement strategy with Eritrea, cultivating a strategic partnership that transcends transient leadership. If Washington capitalizes on this opportunity, establishing a U.S. military presence in Assab, Massawa, or Tio could become a reality along the Red Sea. Such a move would position Asmara as a future ally and a critical strategic partner for the United States in one of the world’s most volatile regions.
A military base along the Eritrean coastline would provide Washington with strategic options in the Horn of Africa, addressing both geoeconomic and geopolitical challenges with significant implications for international commerce and security.
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https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2024/12/27/e ... le-corner/
