Why Ethiopian Ethnic Federalism Can Be Dangerous
1. Exacerbation of Ethnic Tensions:
• Ethnic federalism emphasizes group identities, which can deepen divisions among Ethiopia’s over 80 ethnic groups. By tying political power and resources to ethnicity, it incentivizes ethnic loyalty over national unity, fueling inter-ethnic rivalries.
• Example: Conflicts between groups like the Oromo, Amhara, and Tigrayans have escalated in recent years, often tied to disputes over regional boundaries, resources, or political influence. The 2020–2022 Tigray War, while complex, was partly fueled by ethnic-based regional grievances.
2. Risk of Fragmentation:
• Granting regions the constitutional right to self-determination, including secession (Article 39), creates a framework where groups might pursue separation rather than national cohesion. This risks fracturing Ethiopia, especially in a country with a history of centralized governance.
• Example: Ethnic groups like the Sidama have pushed for their own regional states, and while some demands have been met (e.g., Sidama’s statehood in 2020), others could escalate into broader separatist movements.
3. Unequal Resource Distribution and Power Struggles:
• Ethnic federalism ties resource allocation and political representation to ethnic regions, often leading to perceptions of favoritism or marginalization. Smaller or less politically influential groups may feel neglected, while dominant groups may consolidate power.
• Example: The dominance of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) in the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) coalition until 2018 led to accusations of Tigrayan favoritism, fueling resentment among other groups like the Oromo and Amhara.
4. Ethnic-Based Violence and Displacement:
• The system has been linked to localized ethnic violence, as groups compete for control over land, resources, or political authority within ethnically defined regions. Minorities within regions often face discrimination or expulsion.
• Example: In regions like Oromia and Amhara, ethnic minorities have faced attacks, leading to significant internal displacement. Reports from 2020–2025 indicate millions displaced due to ethnic-based conflicts.
5. Weakening National Identity:
• By prioritizing ethnic identity, the system undermines a unified Ethiopian identity, making it harder to foster a cohesive national agenda. This can weaken the central government’s ability to address cross-cutting issues like economic development or security.
• Example: Political rhetoric often emphasizes ethnic grievances, complicating efforts to build consensus on national policies.
6. Administrative Inefficiency and Corruption:
• Decentralized governance can lead to inefficiencies, as regional governments may lack capacity or be prone to corruption. Ethnic-based patronage networks can also entrench local elites, undermining democratic accountability.
• Example: Some regions struggle with underfunded institutions, while others have faced allegations of mismanagement tied to ethnic loyalties.