Mereja.Forum

[Axumezana]

The following are three possible paths Tigray may have to take for its future:



Option 1: Keep existing Federal Ethiopia as is with Tigray as one of the Federal states, but move the seat of the federal government to Mekelle immediately and to Axum within 5 years

This option does not meet the aspiration of those Tigrayans and Oromos that are determined to establish sovereign Tigray and Oromia states, but it is the low-risk path to sustain the territorial integrity of Ethiopia. More empowerment of the Federal states, improved democracy and, establishing a culture of zero tolerance and effective controlling system for corruption may help for this structure to be acceptable by the Ethiopian people.



Option 2: Establishment of a “Federated/Confederated Ethiopia” with Axum as a capital city.

- As a transition, keep existing Federal Ethiopia as is with Tigray one of the Federal states, but move the seat of the federal government to Mekelle immediately.

- Transform Ethiopia to hybrid Federated/Confederated structure within 5 years with its capital city in Axum as follows:

- By allowing the existing bigger federal states (e.g., Oromia, Amhara and Somalia) to be sovereign, after referendum as per the existing constitution, and willingly integrate them under one union (Confederated Ethiopia modeled after the European Union, to the extent it is relevant), establishing new Kimant and Agew federal states, and keep other existing federal states (Tigray as is, forming a hybrid of Federated/Confederated/ Ethiopia. Thinking only about the independence of Tigray and ignoring the rest of Ethiopia is same as throwing the baby with the bathwater and TPLF must lead and allocate the required resources for the formation of the new Ethiopia. The Confederated Ethiopia could progressively include willing countries in the Horn of Africa such as Eritrea, Sudan, South Sudan, Somalia, and Djibouti.

- Thirty years ago, TPLF/EPRDF decided to govern Ethiopia from Addis Ababa, Menelik palace. That decision separated TPLF from its home base Tigray, marginalized Tigray from development and we all remember how that worked against TPLF during the Oromia riots. The physical separation of TPLF from its home base also made TPLF weak since it was not replenishing the energy it needed from the Tigray people. Based on the historical role Axum played as a corner stone of Ethiopia and knowing the fact that TPLF has to be always within the Tigray people to be effective in a sustainable manner, it is mandatory that the new Federated/Confederated Ethiopia that will be established under the leadership TPLF to have its head offices established in the historic city of Axum (This is similar to Brussels, the EU has no official Capital but Brussels hosts the official seats of various arms of the European Union). Addis Ababa must be a “Federal State” within the Federated/Confederated Ethiopia and continue as a political, diplomatic, and commercial center and metropolitan diversified city serving all the citizens of the Federated/Confederated Ethiopia in an equitable manner without any special claim by Oromos or Amharas. The capital city for the possible new sovereign Oromia (that may be established and confederated with Ethiopia) to be located out of Addis Ababa.

o Tigray may not declare independence since it can indirectly assure its sovereignty from the Federal Ethiopia. However, Oromia, Amhara, Sidama and Somalia could be allowed to be independent states as per the constitution and willingly confederate with Ethiopia (de facto Tigray). Smaller regions such as Afar, Gambelia, Benishangul-Gumz, Welayta, other Southern people, Agew and Kimant could be part of the Federal States as part of the Hybrid Federal/Confederated Ethiopia anchored in Tigray.

o Tigray will ultimately become the political/democratic, cultural, economic and a technology center of the Horn of Africa within the next 20 to 30 years and the anchor and pillar of the Federated/Confederated Ethiopia. Tigray as the nucleus of the new Ethiopia will always directly or indirectly control the army and will have a MOSSAD like intelligence unit that safeguards Tigrayans and federal Ethiopia interests both in Tigray and elsewhere. The confederation could have a fully integrated & liberalized boundary, economy, monetary policy and common currency & passport and cross utilization and joint development of strategic infrastructure like electric power, multimodal transportation, education, etc. Since Oromos have dream of establishing a sovereign state, Tigray and Oromia could play the leading role in transforming Federal Ethiopia to Federated/Confederated Ethiopia.

Option 3: Independent Tigray with Axum as a capital city.

- If the above Options 1 and 2 are not possible, the fallback scenario is the establishment of an independent Tigray legally as per the existing constitution and get recognition by United Nations through the sponsorship of post–Isaias Eritrea or Ethiopia. Independent Tigray could establish of a confederation with Eritrea to build critical mass which could ultimately evolve to Confederated Ethiopia by integrating additional willing states in the Horn of Africa. This option will be more challenging to achieve as the international community and the United Nations may not support it as it affects the territorial integrity of the existing Ethiopia. A small land locked Tigray surrounded by genocidal neighbors may also not be secured and viable to realize its vision in a sustainable manner. All the investment and sacrifice in blood and sweat our ancestors invested in the present Ethiopia including the investment by TPLF and Tigrayans over the last three decades could also be wasted.

[Dark Energy]

Axumite,

You don’t understand international laws. Tigray will not be independent unless Ethiopia disintegrates peacefully or Ethiopia ejects Tigray like Singapore case back in the sixties. Tigray does not hold much power in Ethiopian politics anymore. However, Debre and co are playing a good game. Flexing muscle helps. How’ FANO fares against Abbiy will have a great effect on the future of Tigrayans in Ethiopia.

[Axumezana]

What about Article 39 & TDF?

[Selam/]

ዕጨጌ ዓይጠ መጎጡ

ዋናው የረሳኸው ነገር “በቆሎው” ነው።

ጠኔያም ወያኔ!

[Dark Energy]

Axumite,

Article 39 would only work if you have balanced powers among Amhara, Oromo, and Tigrayans. At this point, it is the Oromo and Guragie unity that dominates Ethiopian politics. Obviously, the radical side of Oromo, meaning OLF wants out. Tigray itself is devided between the Northern Tigray independent minded movement vs the southern Tigray pro Ethiopia mentality. Article 39 could only work if the ruling power favors it. After Isayas, the Eritrean people and the Tigrayan people could work together without violating the sovereignty of both countries. In other words, borders would not matter for social, economical interactions. Deport Isayas to southern Tigray is the motto. He will never lead Ethiopia for time is not on his side.

[Abere]

Axumezana,

You must be hallucinating.

In reality,

a) Tigray accounted 3% of the total Ethiopian population.
b) Tigray contributes less than 0.5% of the total GDP of Ethiopia

Thus, given at least these critical factors, Tigray's influence on the political future of Ethiopia is is utmost 2% - will be barely felt by Ethiopia. The fact that the prior years marked with intense war does not mean it will - that happened TPLF accidently with the support of the West,Arabs, Shabia occupied Ethiopia and the military infrastructure (85%). That is gone. The pest is controlled.

The most ideal strategy for Tigres is to accept the new normal and stop the hiccup and envy against Amhara as well as respect the sacred flag of Ethiopia, disown their rodent Woyane. Stop the dirty work with wild beast Orommuma and dancing of Agendaye

[Axumezana]

Abere what do you need to move the world?You need long road & a standing spot. The tiny great Britain ruled the world , how ? Tigray led Ethiopia 27 years, how? Tigray defended itself against a million army & militia between 2020 & 2022 how? Use your brain & PhD to understand better!

[Abere]

That is why I said you are out of touch, when I tried to compare Tigray with Britain. You should have asked why Britain abled to colonize as many countries as possible around the globe and looted their resources. For the most part Britain had
1. Strategic Geographic Location such
a) Island advantage: Britain’s island geography meant fewer land invasions and allowed it to focus resources on naval strength.

a) Access to Atlantic trade routes put it in a prime position to explore and exploit overseas territories, especially after the Age of Discovery.

**** Which Tigray, tiny province of Ethiopia, is a lesotho like province.Tigray even does have a lake

2. Naval Power
a) Britain built the most powerful navy in the world, especially from the 17th to the 19th centuries.

b) A strong navy allowed Britain to control sea routes, protect trade, and project military power globally.

*** Which Tigray has none. Tigray is now at the mercy of OLF-ENDF.

3. Industrial and Technological Edge
a) Advanced weapons, ships, and communication (like the telegraph) gave them an upper hand in controlling distant territories.

b) Steamships and railways allowed fast troop movement and resource extraction.

etc.

*** Which Tigray has none, dependent on USAID roasted wheat and corn oil.

The 2020 - 2022 war left Tigray people defeated and humiliated for supporting rag tag Woyane. Who forgets the UUU Joe Bidenye Woyane took Tigray to hell; and OLF is the master and king of Tigray people

Abere what do you need to move the world?You need long road & a standing spot. The tiny great Britain ruled the world , how ? Tigray led Ethiopia 27 years, how? Tigray defended itself against a million army & militia between 2020 & 2022 how? Use your brain & PhD to understand better!

[Dark Energy]

Fu…cking adgi Abere,

You keep messing up with us, Tigray will have a Naval base. Remember 1993 ? Both Eritrean and Tigrayan problem has been Isayas. He is very old now. He does not have time remaining to rule your own a.ssz as he always wanted. Stop messing around with Tigrayans. The hate Isayas wanted to create enmity between Tigrayans and Eritrean is over. Idiot.

[Axumezana]

Abere if the Tigrayans in Eritrea & Ethiopia work for common purpose they can led the Horn of Africa. That was true during the Axumites & was true also some 30 years ago when they crushed the biggest army in Africa. Tigray is today full of opportunities , I recently saw people mining gold in the area I was born . Tigray mining potential is immense same is true in the areas of energy , agriculture & tourism. Tigrayans brain could do what the brain of Jews are doing.

[Abere]

DarkDonkey,

____You are noted only as Ascari-Banda, not for being a patriot. This is in your DNA. We ain't count Ascaris as real beings - Ascari are tools of anyone.
If you thought Eritrea province could be a valid country. No, it is not a country at all. It is a dummy name given by Arabs and the West for fear of Ethiopia being a super power in Africa so that they can lock Ethiopia out of Red Sea, her natural and historical territory. Eritrea without Ethiopia is useless. A mere access to sea does not make one a rich place or province. Both Tigray province and Eritrea province are the least fortunate or least rich out of the 14th provinces of Ethiopia. For instance, Bangladesh has signficant access to Ocean, but is the poorest and least in resource. Which province of Ethiopia do you think least fortunate or poor at least in the last 34 years? It is Eritrea and Tigray that are the poorest provinces of Ethiopia - even after the Ascaris and Banda fought for decades and Derg regime fell. You are still the poorest.

___ Please also note, Derg was the most hated regime in Ethiopia. If Derg had the support of Ethiopia, Ascari Eritreans and Banda Woyane would have been a week job of cleaning. You still have not learnt from the defeat of Ascari-land in a few days during the Badme crisis.

___ If Badana Tigre-woyane and Ascari collude to attack Ethiopia, that is blessing in disguise for Ethiopia. You two the rats are a week job. I can't wait for Woyane and Ascari maids unit to face off Ethiopia By the way, you two have no enemy, other than nature. You blamed for being a barren, dry and infertile land on Ethiopia. Your war should have been against your laziness.

Fu…cking adgi Abere,

You keep messing up with us, Tigray will have a Naval base. Remember 1993 ? Both Eritrean and Tigrayan problem has been Isayas. He is very old now. He does not have time remaining to rule your own a.ssz as he always wanted. Stop messing around with Tigrayans. The hate Isayas wanted to create enmity between Tigrayans and Eritrean is over. Idiot.

[Dark Energy]

Adgi Abere,

I am not a donkey, donkey ! Eddie Murphy once played the role of a donkey. He was funny. You are not for you are the donkey. Idiot.

[gagi]

Great points!

The problem is the people you are talking to are not only innately dishonest, they are low IQ moron. Leave them to wallow in their own sh…ts

[gagi]

My intervention refers to Abere’s brilliant comments

[Dark Energy]

Gagi,

Another idiotic donkey, what is brilliant about a donkey chimpanzee hybrid oldie Abere ? Calling Eritrea and Tigray, the poorest in the region ? If that is the case, why don’t you mind your own business and leave us alone ? There is a saying in Tigrigna, ክበልዑዋ ዝደለዩ ቆቃሕ ዛግራ ይብሉዋ Potentially, Eritrea and Tigray are the toughest in the entire East Africa. Eritrea is occupied by some crazy idiot who wants to rule your aszzz. Off course, Tigray needs to be independent to show it’s potential. It has creative bold historically brave inhabitants. Historically, they are superior to your coward and backward behind mentality.