ATO (Amara, Tegaru, Oromo) Dictators Producing Triangular Confrontation vs ATO Democrats Promoting Triangular Cooperation
By Fayyis Oromia*
It is good to differentiate two types of ATO (Amara, Tegaru, Oromo) elites: the democrats vs the dictators. The democrats of the three nations are trying to promote the triangular cooperation of the three nations against the current fascist Salisawi Derg (aka Biltsigina). The dictators in the three nations are still barking at each other producing the triangular confrontation, i.e doing the bidding of the incumbent, which serves its divide and rule machination. The political struggle in Ethiopia shall be crystalized into two broad groups in the near future: those producing multi-angular confrontation vs those promoting multi-angular cooperation. The confrontation is mainly instigated by the incumbent and any individual or organisation producing such confrontation serves the ruling party intentionally or unintentionally. Whoever wants to get rid of the incumbent should try to promote the cooperation. Surely, the ruling polity wants the confrontation for the sake of devide and rule. Thus, genuine opposition groups need to do the opposite and promote the multi-angular cooperation of all classes, parties, ethnies, professions and religions, who are genuinely anti-dictatorial regime. Unfortunately, many activists and politicians in the opposition camp are doing unintentionally the bidding of the incumbent for they are also continiously producing the confrontation, instead of promoting the cooperation. Especially, instigating the confrontation between Amara, Tegaru and Oromo elites serves only the best interest of the existing dictatorial regime. This is ridiculously what the Amara, Tegaru and Oromo elites claiming to oppose the incumbent are doing most of their time. They are subotaging their own activity and objective. I hope that it will be changed in the near future and all genuine opposition groups of all nations shall start to cooperate against the dictatorial regime in Ethiopia.
Once, we heard that an alliance of confederalists, in which OLA (Oromo Liberation Army) is the main part is formed in Washington against the dictatorial regime of Abiy Ahmed. Now, the struggle seems to be mainly between this confederalist forces used by the Oromo republicans and the fake federalists led by Oromo Prosperitans ruling in Finfinné palace. Geofederalists are no where to be seen. Most of them are trying to hide behind the fake federalists in order to fight against the confederalists. I think the confederalists shall prevail with the huge help they get from the Western world. The question yet to be answered is that who will be in control of Finfinné? In case we allow the TDF get free ride to Finfinne like it was in 1991, the Oromo should be ready for dejavue and even for worse oppression by the Tegaru hegemonists. This should be avoided at any cost. All Oromo elites including genuine nationalists in the ruling Biltsigina party should be ready to cooperate with OLA and controll the government in Finfinne. No Amara or Tegaru force should be allowed to influence Finfinné in particular and Oromia in general. This time (at 4th revolution), the OLF/OLA should liberate Oromia 100% from Abyssinian domination system. It is clear that the OLF liberated Oromia 25% during the 1st revolution of 1974, 50% in second movement of 1991, 75% through the third change of 2018. Now, it is the right time to push for the 100% freedom and own Finfinne/Oromia. We should bring the hitherto domination and manipulation of Abyssinian elites to an end
No question that the political spectrum in Ethiopia is based on Amhara-Oromo conflict or cooperation. Slowly, political elites in Ethiopia are coming to their sense. The attempt done by the OLF of Ob. Daud in forging and consolidating PAFD (the Peoples’ Alliance for Freedom and Democracy) is one of the right steps in the right direction. Thanks to the farsighted OLF leaders and the Ex-CUD representatives in Diaspora, who started in 2006 an innovative spirit of coming together for common benefit, the hitherto quasi irreconcilable Amara and Oromo elites started to approach each other. Civilized mentality started to rule the political game between the two groups. They seem to agree on the middle position suggested by the OLF. There are five positions in the spectrum of Amara-Oromo competition in the country:
– the far right is ‘Amaranet dominated geographical federation’, i.e defacto Great Amaria persued by Ezema.
– the middle right is ‘Amaranet dominated ethnic federation’, i.e equivalent to Union Amaria entertained by EPP.
– the middle position is ‘rainbow confederation’ in the form of a voluntary union of free nations as stated in politica program of the OLF, i.e realization of Oromia in a union of free nations.
– the middle left is ‘Oromummà led ethnic federation’, i.e the same to federal Union envisioned by OFC.
– the far right is ‘Oromummà led geographical federation’, i.e practically Oropia (Oromummà Led Ethiopia) promoted by Fayyis et al.
Now, the whole struggle is between the far right forces and the later three groups (middle, middle left and far left). EPP of Dr. Abiy is trying to balance the two camps and to keep the status quo. Interestingly, the Amara branch in the EPP tends to move to the far right position of Ezema. Time will tell us how long this Amara group will stay in the EPP of Dr. Abiy. It seems that the Amara wing of EPP will shift to the right position of ‘Amaranet dominated federation’, whereas the Oromo wing may move to the left position of ‘Oromumma led federation’. Between the two is the optimal middle position of the OLF to realize the rainbow confederation of free nations.
I don’t need to discuss about PAFD here for a lot has been said and written about it. But, let me put my opinion regarding ENM (Ethiopian National Movement) of Ob. Lénco on paper in short and compare it with PAFD concerning their implication on Oromo liberation movement. ENM has been seen as compromise middle solution, which Ethiopian pro-freedom and pro-democracy elites achieved to forge till now. To make my readers understand what I mean, let me classify these elites into seven:
– Ethiocenteralist, who advocate for integrated Ethiopia. Most of them being Amara elites; this group just wants to have a unitary country; of course, whereas the “right of other nations to develop their culture and language is respected”.
– Ethioreferendists, who want to have have referendum on “integrated Ethiopia vs geo-federation”.
– Ethiofederalists, who want to foster geography based federalism as an alternative to the language based federalism in Ethiopia.
– Midrefendists, who entertain both Ethiofederalists and Ethnofederalists and want to decide per referendum on line of Ethiofederalism as a prelude to an integrated Ethiopia vs line of Ethnofederalism as a prelude to an independent Oromia.
– Ethnofederalists, who demand union of autonomous nations in Ethiopian context with relatively strong federal government to be formed by predetermination i.e a union by elite consensus or based on free will of the involved elites.
– Ethnoreferendists, who wish referundum on: language based federalism vs an independent Oromia
– Ethnoseparatists who do fight for the liberation of their respective nations like an independent Oromia, but still have not excluded the possibility of union of independent nations – which is almost the union similar to EU (European Union). This group strives for a possible union (confederation) of free peoples based on referendum of the public, not by free will of only politicians.
When we compare the seven groups, positions of the first and the seventh seem to be irreconcilable. I think the fourth position, i.e. position of ENM is a compromise solution – which the first group (mostly Amara forces) and the seventh group (dominated by Oromo fronts) could accept as a common ground to make an alliance and fight against the common enemy, i.e against the dictatorial regime of Biltsigina.
So, we came to our sense and celebrated ENM as a compromise solution for all national groups in the country. Otherwise, we continued to be victims of divide-and-rule played by Biltsigina, where it demonizes Amhara elites as “centralist chauvinists” and accuses the Oromo as “narrow secessionists”, and it further persuades them to fight each other and beat them turn by turn. In short, the above pro-freedom and pro-democracy groups can be described as the far right, who want to have an integrated Ethiopia, the middle position of ENM as a compromise – referendum on the two lines: line of Ethiofederation leading to Ethiopian integration and line of Ethnofederation fascilitating Oromian independence.
Clear is that some Amara elites advocate and write in support of the far right position by opposing democratic Ethnofederation. What is the solution from these pro unity elites’ point of view? Neglect liberation fronts and others who vehemently oppose their far right position? It is clear that the far right positioned elites want to get rid of kilil, whereas a lot of Oromo elites want it to be real and democratic.
The two main political positions in the opposition, i.e. the position of Amara pro-democracy forces (unconditional Ethiopian integration) vs. the position of Oromo pro-liberty fronts (Oromian independence leading to union based on free will, i.e conditional union) should be discussed and debated before attempting to forge any alliance against the ruling party. I think, groups in ENM have done the discussion. They agreed on unconditional Ethiopian unity as a common goal. It seems the “multinational” party AG7 got its will asserted. “National” parties like the ODF seemed to have given in, by giving up the possibility of Oromian independence, which is one part of the political spectrum. It was not even yet clear whether AG7 has accepted as a compromise (in principle) the ethnic federation, which is preferred by Oromo parties. According to certain radio interview given by AG7 leader, his party opposed such federation, and he himself wanted that the public decide on the type of future federation (Ethiofederation vs Ethnofederation).
It is clear that Amara pro-democracy forces, such as AG7, are advocates of geography based federalism (Ethiofederalism) as a good prelude to Ethiopian integration, in contrast to a language based federalism (Ethnofederalism) as a nice prelude to Oromian independence, which is preferred by most of the freedom fighters, such as the ODF. Implementation of geography based federation is the second, next to securing the unconditional unity, what the AG7 wanted to achieve in ENM. So it seemed that AG7 has gotten what it intended to achieve: if ENM wins in the future election, an issue of the type of federation will be decided by public verdict. AG7 really played smart politics. To secure the unconditional unity, it applied the method of consensus between involved parties. To achieve the type of federation it wants, it demanded other method – referendum. Actually fair was when in both decisions, either consensus or referendum, were applied. That means either they should have left the question of Ethiopian integration also for referendum or they should have arrived at a required consensus on accepting Oromian independence as part of the spectrum.
Here, it seems the federalist Oromo party in ENM had lost in the compromise solution. It had not insisted to achieve the right of the Oromo nation to self-determination (deciding on the possible four outcomes: Ethiopian integration, Ethiofederation, Ethnofederation and Oromian independence) , and even it compromised the further existence of Oromo state because of the fact that if geography based federation wins in the required referendum, Oromia will be dismantled.
Regarding the implication of the two hitherto alliances (ENM and PAFD) on Oromo liberation movement, we can only discuss theoretically. ENM, without any consensus on keeping Ethnofederalism, is a backward step for the Oromo liberation movement. I am sure if the Oromo party in this alliance does not give clear answer for this question, it should expect that the Oromo people will stick even to the OPDO rather than experimenting on the fate of Oromia. If it was clear that ENM was to advance Ethnofederalism and if the difference with that of the TPLF was only the question of democracy as Dr. Merera once told in VOA, then it is clear that Oromo people will support them to achieve a true and democratic Ethnofederation, getting rid of the present fake one. Achieving autonomous and democratic Oromia in a federal union Ethiopia is the prelude on the journey to Oromian independence. Then, we can be sure that ENM was really the solution to our liberation problem in a sense of the ODF.
That is why I dare to say Ethiopian elites, by forging ENM (if ethnic federation is part of its programme), could only achieve midpoint solution to the complex problem of the empire. To come to the endpoint solution, they still need another alliance – like the AFD, which seemed to have made selfdetermination of nations a common ground of the agreement. Then, the public can decide on: Ethiopian integration vs Ethiofederation vs Ethnofederation vs Oromian independence. Without a democratic right of all nations in the region, including such selfdetermination, there will never be a lasting solution. With consensus on unconditional unity (excluding Oromian independence as one of the posibble solutions) like what ENM did, we can only postpone the end result, but never avoid or hinder the question of nations to an inclusive selfdetermination which will be raised again and again and again … till they will get it. ENM excluding Oromian independence option was just as bad as PAFD excluding Ethiopian integration option. True selfdetermination is inclusive of the two extremes (Ethiopian integration and Oromian independence). Both ENM and PAFD should have revised their exclusive postion and accept the midreferendum on: Ethiofederation heading towards Ethiopian integration vs Ethnofderation leading towards Oromian independence.
Coming specifically to the question of Oromo people, it is not bad if we move from the status quo and achieve our freedom by any means and then entertain all the seven positions listed above. As far as the Oromo are concerned, the only lasting union is the one based on selfdetermination of Oromo public, not a union based on predetermination by elites like those in the ODF tried. That is why I do advise those opposition groups in Diaspora, such as the ENM and the PAFD to face the reality on the ground and forge an alliance based on the solid ground to achieve a union (confederation) per selfdetermination of nations, which is an optimal solution, but not a temporary compromise solution like that of only ENM (excluding Oromian independence) or only PAFD (excluding Ethiopian integration. Oromo’s Gadà politics is inclusive of the seven positions of freedom fighters! ENM and PAFD should have come together and foster AFD-like inclusive alliance of Ethiocenteralists, Ethioreferendumists, Ethiofederalists, Midreferendumists, Ethnofederalists, Ethnoreferendumists and Ethnoseparatists! Anyways, the alliance of Confederalists with OLA as Major part are on the right direction. May Wàqa help all anti-Biltsigina opposition forces be such inclusive minded!
Galatôma
Read more: https://orompia.wordpress.com/2023/06/1 ... operation/