Mereja.Forum

[Mesob]

If Abiy Ahmed is going to open a war to occupy Asab Port in the the next three months, the outcome is going to be very hard to predict. Abiy Ahmed has the aerial, army human resources number, new modern armaments and diplomatic advantage. Eritrea's only advantage is its war hardened and experienced army commanders. Plus, Ethiopia has hired well experienced Azerbaijani drone and aerial officers, with lots of experience in the Armenian enclave war.
Here, Abiy Ahmed has the overall advantage, however, if Eritrea can get limited support from the Amhara Fano and the Tigrayan TPLF, that is if they can distract Abiy a bit, by pushing towards Showa, then Shaebia may win this war very easily.
In this war, the only way the Tigrayans and the Amharas can stop the upcoming Orommumaa domination of Ethiopia is now. Otherwise, after 15 to 20 years, every Ethiopian kid will be forced to speak Oromifaa. Here is for the Tigrayans and the Amharas to take advantage of Eritrea to push back the Oromo avalanche.
On the other hand, for the Afars, this will be a major opportunity to start unifying the Afar nation in Eritrea, Ethiopia and Djibouti by using Abiy Ahmed on their side.
In the end, this war might end becoming a war of the Oromo Kush against the Northerners of Amhara Tigray people. In short, it will be war of the Oromo Ethiopia against the traditional historical Habesha Ethiopia.

What are your comments?

[Zmeselo]

What you're easily discounting, is how patriotic the Afar of Eritrea are.

After all the first Italian establishment in the area was the purchase of Assab by the Rubattino Shipping Company in 1869, which came under government control in 1882. Occupation of Massawa in 1885 and the subsequent expansion of territory would gradually engulf the region and in 1889 the Ethiopian Empire recognized the Italian possession in the Treaty of Wuchale. In 1890 the Colony of Eritrea was officially founded.

I don't know what the Afar of Ethiopia and Djibouti will do, but I'm quite certain the Eritrean Afar has seen it all and know it all and are no less patriotic than the rest of their compatriots.

If Abiy Ahmed is going to open a war to occupy Asab Port in the the next three months, the outcome is going to be very hard to predict. Abiy Ahmed has the aerial, army human resources number, new modern armaments and diplomatic advantage. Eritrea's only advantage is its war hardened and experienced army commanders. Plus, Ethiopia has hired well experienced Azerbaijani drone and aerial officers, with lots of experience in the Armenian enclave war.
Here, Abiy Ahmed has the overall advantage, however, if Eritrea can get limited support from the Amhara Fano and the Tigrayan TPLF, that is if they can distract Abiy a bit, by pushing towards Showa, then Shaebia may win this war very easily.
In this war, the only way the Tigrayans and the Amharas can stop the upcoming Orommumaa domination of Ethiopia is now. Otherwise, after 15 to 20 years, every Ethiopian kid will be forced to speak Oromifaa. Here is for the Tigrayans and the Amharas to take advantage of Eritrea to push back the Oromo avalanche.
On the other hand, for the Afars, this will be a major opportunity to start unifying the Afar nation in Eritrea, Ethiopia and Djibouti by using Abiy Ahmed on their side.
In the end, this war might end becoming a war of the Oromo Kush against the Northerners of Amhara Tigray people. In short, it will be war of the Oromo Ethiopia against the traditional historical Habesha Ethiopia.

What are your comments?

[Odie]

If Abiy Ahmed is going to open a war to occupy Asab Port in the the next three months, the outcome is going to be very hard to predict. Abiy Ahmed has the aerial, army human resources number, new modern armaments and diplomatic advantage. Eritrea's only advantage is its war hardened and experienced army commanders. Plus, Ethiopia has hired well experienced Azerbaijani drone and aerial officers, with lots of experience in the Armenian enclave war.
Here, Abiy Ahmed has the overall advantage, however, if Eritrea can get limited support from the Amhara Fano and the Tigrayan TPLF, that is if they can distract Abiy a bit, by pushing towards Showa, then Shaebia may win this war very easily.
In this war, the only way the Tigrayans and the Amharas can stop the upcoming Orommumaa domination of Ethiopia is now. Otherwise, after 15 to 20 years, every Ethiopian kid will be forced to speak Oromifaa. Here is for the Tigrayans and the Amharas to take advantage of Eritrea to push back the Oromo avalanche.
On the other hand, for the Afars, this will be a major opportunity to start unifying the Afar nation in Eritrea, Ethiopia and Djibouti by using Abiy Ahmed on their side.
In the end, this war might end becoming a war of the Oromo Kush against the Northerners of Amhara Tigray people. In short, it will be war of the Oromo Ethiopia against the traditional historical Habesha Ethiopia.

What are your comments?

That is a good point.
In my opinion:
1. Why we are in this mess is because of the Tigray hate for Amhara to begin with. That hate, unfortunately, persists. I doubt the Tigrians have learned their lesson from their massive failure. They still believe they can repeat their adventure of ruling Ethiopia. That is dead. I am not sure how their animosity with Eritrea helps them. The border issue with Eri is a done deal, or else perpetual war. They demarcated the border with Eritrea themselves. Not the Ethiopian people. The Ethiopian people never gave mandate to TPLF/Tigre at any time except all was done at gun point. Tigrians corroborated with Shabiya and Egypt (Butros Ghali) to make Eritrea legally independent country, even when the majority of Eritreans were not allowed to choose between unity or independence (we heard the choice given was freedom or slavery-who would choose slavery?). The Tigrians messed up Ethiopia through Ethnic federation, a country that was carefully crafted to unite by previous rulers. Now the Tigrians lost it both ways. That is, they are hated by Ethiopians as well as Eritreans in power or by everybody else. Are they going to redeem themselves now by working with Eritrea and Amhara to save Ethiopia? I don't believe so. The only way they will unite with these at least temporarily is if they believe they will get what they want (independence with Wolkayit and other Amhara claimed land) which is unlikely. Will the Tigrians partner with Abiy? They will partner not only with Oromo but even with the devil if they believe, the Oromuma can enable them to get Amhara claimed lands and revenge Eritrea for their power loss during the Abiy war. So, the situation is fluid. I don't believe Tigrians in honest heart will work with Amhara or salvage Ethiopia from Ethnofascist destruction or social and geographic engineering by OPP gangs. I don't believe they in honest heart will cooperate with Shabiya either. They will be happy to see Eritrea reduced to rubble.

2. You are right in that if Amhara and Tigray and useless southerners don't unit to downsize or destroy Oromo-fascism to a more tenable version, the ethnic cleansing, land reclamation, cultural destruction, ethnic domination, Oromization will continue for the foreseeable future. Of course, the rest of Ethiopians will have to speak Oromifa not by will but by force. I don't think Ethiopians have seriously looked at this coming or they don't care (liver today). They are playing with the flood of destruction as the people at the time of Noah played with the flood water until it destroyed them (I don't mind if a rich diaspora or Ethiopia who heavily invested in Ethiopia call me dooms day wisher or pessimist-this is more than reality). All Ethiopians are not genuinely represented in system (only OPP yes men/women are in power). One Ethnic gang is setting the pace and talking the talk.

3. I earnestly doubt Oromuma will start war with Eritrea, but good not to ignore the possibility. War may actually be a blessing in disguise (although I personally would not wish it). Eritrea may have to simply enable Amhara fighters and perhaps a splinter group from TPLF + other external forces playing a role may usher the end of Oromuma fascism. However, the role of UAE and Turkey +?Azerbaijan supporting the Oromofascists cannot be ignored [hence the possibility of international conflict like in the Sudan!].

4. The significance of the role Afar people will play questionable based on historical factors (in terms of rebellion)

[Fiyameta]

Port or no port, so long as your mercenary service comes at the expense of thinking like a human, the end result will always be perdition, so help you God!

[Abere]

If Abiy Ahmed is going to open a war to occupy Asab Port in the the next three months, the outcome is going to be very hard to predict. Abiy Ahmed has the aerial, army human resources number, new modern armaments and diplomatic advantage. Eritrea's only advantage is its war hardened and experienced army commanders. Plus, Ethiopia has hired well experienced Azerbaijani drone and aerial officers, with lots of experience in the Armenian enclave war.

**** I do not think Eritrea had war hardened and experienced commanders of Eritrea are upto the emerging military science. They become more of a liability than an asset. They are doddering old. Their incompetency was clear in their loss during the Badme war. They got defeated as fast as Woyane was defeated. Shabia and Woyane got victory only when Ethiopians got deceived and foolishly rally behind them. Remember, አፋር አለ በሎ፤ አማራ አለ በሎ፤ሶማል አለ በሎ ወዘተ አለበሎ.

Here, Abiy Ahmed has the overall advantage, however, if Eritrea can get limited support from the Amhara Fano and the Tigrayan TPLF, that is if they can distract Abiy a bit, by pushing towards Showa, then Shaebia may win this war very easily.

*** First, Woyane(TPLF) is unreliable. It can even change course at the 11th hour. Trusting Woyane is like trying to catch a falling knife. Even if Woyane support either part, it is limited to Tigray province, it effectively cheked by Amhara. Any movement of Woyane into Amhara land is closely watched by Amhara forces. Woyane is jailed and limited to Tigray. Woyane and Fano cannot be in alliance because they have divergent vision. Woyane has no worst enemy than Fano. Their friendship is like the calf of a cow and lions cub playing together. You have to take TPLF out of the equation. Delete it. It has no utility to Shabia and it has no utility to Orommuma/Abiy. Thus, Fano is the most deciding factor.

In this war, the only way the Tigrayans and the Amharas can stop the upcoming Orommumaa domination of Ethiopia is now. Otherwise, after 15 to 20 years, every Ethiopian kid will be forced to speak Oromifaa. Here is for the Tigrayans and the Amharas to take advantage of Eritrea to push back the Oromo avalanche.

**** True, the fate of Tigres and Amhara will be affected. Even now many Tigre and Amahara investors and property owners let alone ordinary ones are openly targeted to made them poor or lock them out of business opportunities. Out of mind Oromuma will never stop targeting them while Tigres still under Woyane are could not think outside of the box - stuck with Welqait Raya. Tigres should forget this and move on for the big picture.

Defeating uncivilized Orommuma/Aba-geday, demolishing fake ethnic region and restoring law and order ensures the future of Tigres, Amharas and those other Ethiopians.

On the other hand, for the Afars, this will be a major opportunity to start unifying the Afar nation in Eritrea, Ethiopia and Djibouti by using Abiy Ahmed on their side.

I think you mixed things up here. Abiy Ahmed, Orommuma have been telling Afar that Afar is one of the families of Oromo tribe. They are claiming Afar as Oromo. ኬኛ ሊደረጉ ነው ሃሳቡ እኮ. The birth of Oromiya Republic is based on stealing Afar as an Oromo empire and getting Irrecha Sea (Red Sea) Both Isaias Afework and Abiy Ahmed are undesired by Afar. Thus, the coalition of Afar, Amhara and Tigre is very important to end the 50 years of useless rebel thugs war.
The question is will Shabia and OLF fight against each other, cancel out each other? If that is true, Ethiopia's problem is solved by this simplification.

What are your comments?

[Zmeselo]

[Dark Energy]

Guys,

There will be no war. It is drama. The little twerp in Addis is insecure. If he can hold Ethiopia together, that would be a victory for him. He simply is trying to create distractions from the political upheaval he is facing. Amhara groups will beat him. The Weyanes could do it easily as well. He knows it. He is trying to prolong his grip on power. BTW, OLF is still around Jawar is far a better leader.

[Agazi General]

MY TEGARU AGAZIAN AGAME AGENT BRAZER, WITHOUT Z BEST TDF FIGHTERS ABIY CANNOT INVADE Z NORTHERN TEGARU ERITREA. ALTHOUGH SUM TEGARU WanT REVENGE, ITS SMART 2 NOT EXPOSE OUR PLAN AND BE EMOTIONAL. TIGRAY CANNOT AFFORD MORE WAR. WE MUST FOCUS ON DEVELOPING OUR LAND.

[DefendTheTruth]

If Abiy Ahmed is going to open a war to occupy Asab Port in the the next three months, the outcome is going to be very hard to predict. Abiy Ahmed has the aerial, army human resources number, new modern armaments and diplomatic advantage. Eritrea's only advantage is its war hardened and experienced army commanders. Plus, Ethiopia has hired well experienced Azerbaijani drone and aerial officers, with lots of experience in the Armenian enclave war.
Here, Abiy Ahmed has the overall advantage, however, if Eritrea can get limited support from the Amhara Fano and the Tigrayan TPLF, that is if they can distract Abiy a bit, by pushing towards Showa, then Shaebia may win this war very easily.
In this war, the only way the Tigrayans and the Amharas can stop the upcoming Orommumaa domination of Ethiopia is now. Otherwise, after 15 to 20 years, every Ethiopian kid will be forced to speak Oromifaa. Here is for the Tigrayans and the Amharas to take advantage of Eritrea to push back the Oromo avalanche.
On the other hand, for the Afars, this will be a major opportunity to start unifying the Afar nation in Eritrea, Ethiopia and Djibouti by using Abiy Ahmed on their side.
In the end, this war might end becoming a war of the Oromo Kush against the Northerners of Amhara Tigray people. In short, it will be war of the Oromo Ethiopia against the traditional historical Habesha Ethiopia.

What are your comments?

Mesob,

I really considered you someone with a more keen observation on this forum and I didn't expect such left-behind dogma of the same old cliche. There is an established fact about the entity of your "war hardened and experienced army commanders" Eritrea, which you or somebody else can't deny.

Eritrea is a place where time is not only standing still but more so sliding back, do you deny that?

In that case Eritrea is also a place of "war hardened commanders" of yesterday. Yesterday's war is outdated in today's landscape. Eritrea opted to close school and open more of military training camps, do you deny?

The changed landscape came about from gaining education, which the man in the name of Isayas Afeworki remained allergic to all along.

To keep it short: Eritrea has lost by choosing the wrong path, the sooner you realize this simple fact, the more you could be helpful to your own cause or people.

I read your message and didn't have time to respond but then came across this video of Ermias Legesse.

Ermias has proven himself somebody who can learn from his past mistakes, unlike the ቆሞ-ቀር Isays Afeworki.

[Fiyameta]