Seeing in the news a lake in the Sahara desert after recent rains there makes you wonder if this occurred due to natural variability in climate or man made climate crisis.
Watching news about hurricanes Helene and Milton also makes you wonder whether they are caused mainly by natural variability or man made effects.
These three data points appear to be outliers that offer strong signals if they were caused by man made effects.
This is because based on Saros cycle, natural variability is predictable. This predictable natural cycle establishes that there are historical time spans when the orbital trajectories of the earth and the moon were analogous to those of the current time span.
A peer-reviewed paper linked here explains how these analogous periods can be established:
Validation of predicted meteorological drought in California using analogous orbital geometries
Interested researchers who have long enough data to review may be able to see if there were orbitally analogous periods in history that had a similar pattern of rainfall in the Sahara. The same kind of analysis can be done about both Hurricanes Helene and Milton.
Absence of these kinds of outliers during analogous time spans in history would suggest that these extreme events may be a result of man made climate crisis.
-
Messele Zewdie Ejeta
- Member
- Posts: 44
- Joined: 27 Dec 2016, 10:21