Post
by Abere » 22 Nov 2022, 11:44
Validating and Interpreting Obasanjo's Tigray Death Statistics:
--- Based on TPLF's own report released during its 2nd invasion, Tigray lost 300,000 poor souls. However, the that report is 100% false, the intention of the TPLF's report was to counter anticipated accurate reporting of the Tigray's true death toll by experts. Thus, for fear being exposed and uproar, TPLF made a false cut off. Accurate statistical estimates right at the end of the 2nd TPLF's invasion of Amhara land put that Tigray, a region accounting 3.5% - 5% , the national population lost 900,000 armed Tigres. If TPLF did not engage children, women, aged, disabled population, the loss of 900,000 means a total wipe out of the military age population. Suppose them median age of Tigray is 18 years, the proportion of arm bearing or recruit able population for military service is very small.
The updated death toll for TPLF rag tags should be more than 900,000 after its 3rd invasion. The most plausible 1 million poor souls of illiterate Tigres is perished for nothing. That means it touched every one household in Tigray. Always, one has to be very cautious when figures are thrown out by politicians. Both TPLF and Obasanjo are using political figures. They both are simply giving some hint which we can use for better estimation and validation. As we have been sayin sometime ago, Tigray lost 900,000 souls and Obasanjo verified two-third(2/3) of that truth. But still he came short of telling the fact - he just wanted to build his resume of being a negotiator that he stopped a war that claimed about 1 million Tigre. There are enough rationale for the exponential death rate of Tigres, but the most significant ones: TPLF's 13th century human-wave tactics, TPLF use of children's, women, old, disabled, and TPLF military commanders themselves executing their own fleeing rag tag Tigres. This leaves the ratio of death to enemy side very high.
Regarding, Obasanjo's estimate of ENDF,Fano, ASF, Afar there is no statistics released form the Ethiopian government to help validate this. I would say again, this is a political figure with the intent to glorify Obasanjo's role other than that it is false. First, even Obasanjo gave a huge estimate interval. The minimum and maximum class size show how skewed or unreliable the estimate is. First, ENDF is a professional army, there is no statistical probability it will lose that much; second, Fano did not have that much army size it only started to pick up size after the 2nd invasion; and also Fano are known for being diligent at aim and sharp shooters'; and the same goes with the other categories of the allied forces. With a 99% level of confidence I would put the death toll from the ENDF/FANO/ASF and Afar under 50,000.
