- Abiy's political future hinges in winning the war with TPLF. Abiy has already crossed so many red lines which makes it impossible to coexist with TPLF as equal or junior partner. A defeated Abiy will not only loose power but shall definitely face ICC for the geocide and war crime he committed in Tigray.
- For TPLF which was resurrected from death in the 1st half of 2021, it needs a strategic victory to take him to be the bride groom of the Horn Africa. On the down side, if TPLF looses this war or is unable to secure a strategic win after the already costly and heavy loss of life and destruction of infrastructure and the economy of Tigray, it will disintegrate and disappear. A defeated Tigray will lose Welkait and Raya and it shall be further marginalized and isolated.
- For Isaias loosing the war with TPLF shall destroy his dream for the Horn Africa, unseat him from power & abort his plan to inherit his throne to his son , destruction of his legacy and possibility of facing ICC
- For Amhara power hungry war mongers , loosing this war will shatter their plan to dominate Ethiopia ( Welkait and Raya are an excuse to mobilize their people not the main drivers of the war). Loosing the war and a possible alliance between Tigray And Oromia will make it impossible to come back to the driving seat. A defeated Amhara most likely shall be divided into Gondar, Gojam, Wello( it may be integrated with Oromia) and Shoua.
Considering the above factors, the war is a survival one for most of the players and its is going to be ugly and fierce one!
The rivalry between Amhara and Oromia is the major fault line for TPLF to exploit .
Amhara win will marginalize Oromos and other Ethiopians,
but Tigray win will give birth to new Ethiopia led by core team of Tigray-Oromia alliance