Factors that critically determine the negotiation: military balance of force, position of critical states with levers, economic necessities.
There are three scenarios for the upcoming negotiations between Ethiopia and Tigray.
A: win-win scenario - where confidence and trust-building measures are taken with immediate effect.
A package of confidence and trust-building measures, not piecemeal 'concessions', is necessary to embark on negotiations on substantive politico-military agenda items quickly.
B: the waiting game - the 'Salami tactic' - where piece by piece resumption of legitimately expected services unrelated to negotiations are presented and portrayed as 'concessions' to inflict cost and compel compromise.
When it takes too long, 'the Salami tactic' could constitute a scheme of 'slow death' for Tigrayans.
Slow death, as abominable as is now, should be totally rejected.
The 'slow death' may also lead to Scenario C- deadlock and breakdown of negotiations, and a resumption of war.
A relapse to military confrontation is exactly what everyone should avoid.
A package of confidence-building measures deters 'the Salami tactic'.
A unified voice from the international community could help avert any retrogression to war and end the suffering of millions.