Oromo are irrelevant because they lack vision, consistency and they change every hour.
I doubt anyone including Oromo themselves are going to gamble with them.
Oromo doesn't even know what they want.
Woyane poses no threat.
Only Somalis genuinely support Abiy. Amhara pretend to support him because of Tigray conflict. In a normal scenario, they don't.
Oromo are confused. They are irrelevant just all they have is population.
Afar are emotional. They are not politicians. They think with emotions so if we give them few candies, cakes they have never seen they will be happy. Easy sell.
Somalis in Ethiopia are at a crossroads - those who want to leave Ethiopia and those like me who want to convert Menelik Palace into Ahmed Gurey Villa.
I think the later have the momentum but we could get blind sided. Either way, there's great chance Tigregu will vote against Amhara leadership and vis-a-vis, Oromo are either Amhara-mini or doomsday chasing OLF/OLA.
All parties including Somalis agree, we are against OLF/OLA. Their radicalism will destabilize the entire Horn and will lead to massacres, genocide in Addis Ababa and other multi-ethnic regions.
And because of that there's need for Somalis to lead Ethiopia. They have the numbers, clear vision, and neutrality amongst Ethiopia's big 10.
Further more, Eritreans would feel reassured under Somali leadership.
It took few months for Oromo to throw Eritrea under the bus despite hosting, feeding, training and clothing them for decades (OLF/OLA). We can't trust Oromo.
Southern nations don't have the numbers nor the assertiveness and power needed to manage Ethiopia.
Somalis will crack the whip and they can work Ethio's dynamics without pinning X group against Y like Woyane. Not sustainable.
For Somali things are clear.
- no interfering in the affairs of Somalia, Eritrea.
- All Ethiopians deserve life and liberty
- Past is the past
Tigray and Amhara disputed regions probably need to be special chartered zone managed by Fed gov along with representatives from both communities, important posts to rotate, removal of all armed groups.
Badme is Eritrean, demarcation of borders
Al fashqa is Ethiopian.
Kassala belongs to Eritrea.
Axum to get its first Mosque
Wa billahi Tiwfuq