Blueshift wrote: ↑15 Jul 2021, 22:51
Sadacha,
I thought of you as a smart guy. You have a pitfall. You find excuses. They got to Addis and ruled Ethiopia for almost thirty years. It is wimpy to make excuses. They were good fighters. They were smart. They did what they had to do. Hoever, once they got to power, they became paranoid of Oromo power. Had they let the Oromos control their destiny, they would have been laughing today in Addis. The enmity between them and the amharas precedes 1991. It is very natural to linger on. But, doing what they did to the Oromos, you can fault them on that. But, do not make the same mistake they did.
Z-mal adgi,
They are much closer to you than to me. Face the truth. Most likely, the contested areas will be declared independent regions by the parliament. That is the right thing to do. But, the agames will never hear of it. Unfortunately, You will be hearing their bullets. Excuse my French. You can't handle the truth. Deal with it.
Blueshift,
If I disagree with you-that does not take away from my intellect.
Indeed, I have brought forth credible reasons/arguments, as to why things will not be like 1991.
While you, are repeating the same thing over and over: that they're good fighters.
It takes more than military prowess to succeed, hence the reason why we see that stronger armies lost to smaller, but determined guerrillas [French lost in Vietnam, America lost in Afghanistan, the Russians lost in Chechnya and in Afghanistan, etc].
If you don't have the support of the masses, there's a good chance that you'd lose the war.
America could not advance in the war in Iraq, until they had the support of the Sunni tribes, who decided to stop supporting the resistance there.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p021q7fz
Remember, they are not the only good fighters in the country, or the region.
This is why fighting them in tigray is not smart, because it's their turf and their people would back their armies, fair enough, so... it's better to stand at the borders of tigray, and prepare strong armies there, so if they go there, then, of course, they'd lose, it'd go from guerrilla war to conventional warfare on turf that the tplf/tdf/etc isn't knowledgeable of/about.
Then, there's logistics, supply lines getting stretched, other essentials needed to sustain such a war, that tigray lacks.
They were trained by even better, more experienced fighters-Shabia, or the EPLF. The EPLF taught them how to fight and even sent Mussie Tekle to lead them in their early days- or did you forget that?:
You mentioned that they got to Addis and ruled for so long, but you neglected the reasons or how, they got there, and how they ruled for so long.
Those are essential details, if we are to understand the entire situation, sir.
The support of the people between Tigray and Addis, was crucial, and necessary for them to even advance beyond Gondar. Back then, Amhara farmers welcomed them, with food and aid, today, tigrayans cannot even dream of entering the Amhara region, without them being fired upon from all sides by hostile forces, every Amhara woman, man, even cat and dog would fight them-it would be impossible for them.
Do you think that the creation of the EPRDF was for fun? Or that an alliance of the countries most influential/largest ethnic groups wasn't needed?
No and no, are the answers. The TPLF could not have advanced beyond Tigray, had it not been for: 1] The alliance of the EPRDF, which included Amhara and Oromo elements that facilitated things for them, 2] the low morale of the derg army & the hatred that the masses had for the Derg, which caused the people all over to welcome the TPLF/EPRDF & EPLF alliance, seeing ANYTHING as being better than the Derg!
So... no, even if the TPLF were to fight ''smartly'' and ''guerrilla war'' until the return of Jesus, peace be upon him, they'd still lose and not advance beyond Amhara region.