I have jotted down some points from live discussions at Awate. Given the evolving external dynamics, the demise of Isaias & Co. can happen faster than expected.
Abi: Now, my question is which force/ forces are formidable enough to restore order and insure the continuity of government after Isu?
What made you change your ኃይለኛ mind now despite Isu has millions more supporters south of the border (in Ethiopia) instead of determined and capable enemies?
Haile TG: The regime of IA (Isaias Afeworki) has now entered a stage that we always feared. All variables indicate that his hold on power hangs in the question, Eritrean future appears to be predicated on outcomes of behind closed door deliberations of outsiders. The millions more supporters of IA south of the border are sure lukewarm in defending him when the one-million tonnes train of global condemnation is hurling towards him. To say that there is "credible evidence of Eritrean atrocity" and "we haven't invited them" doesn't ring anything more than a bamboo stick wall for a support:)
Now that Eritrea is likely to undergo some change anyway, what would be the point to call for uprising and turmoil? Those were needed under the assumption that it was proving difficult to dislodge a regime supported by koboro junkies (copy rights SGJ) who would accuse us of treason for advocating for Lampedusa tragedy of refugees but equally accuse us of the same for not advocating for Tigray tragedy of refugees! We were faced with cult following beyond our means to rehabilitate, thus I called and supported for civil uprising to force change. Now, the Sh$t has hit the fan and change is within sight, it would be equally prudent to adjust the call towards that which plays in Eritrea's greatest advantage.
Finally, the means of change is tactics, it is not the strategic end in itself, hence changing and fine tuning tactics is the right thing to do. This is why we are calling for all opposition and the Eritrean public at large to support the creation of Eritrean Government in Exile and our neighbors to extend the same curtesy to the Eritrean people as they do to their beloved Issu.
https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php? ... 1601860158
https://fb.watch/4nAw597ixB/
Conversations on the need for Eritrean Government in Exile: Mr. Huruy T Bayru and Dr. Awet T Weldemichael
Last edited by sarcasm on 21 Mar 2021, 20:58, edited 1 time in total.
Re: Conversations on the need for a Eritrean Government in Exile: Mr. Huruy T Bayru and Dr. Awet T Weldemichael
Do you think Ethiopians will choose ኢስይያስ አፈወርቅ as their president? If he wants too?
Re: Conversations on the need for a Eritrean Government in Exile: Mr. Huruy T Bayru and Dr. Awet T Weldemichael
First of all Huruy is not an Old [deleted] who knows nothing , where was he during a struggle for Independence ? above all like Isayas said it Eritrea ain't for sale
Re: Conversations on the need for a Eritrean Government in Exile: Mr. Huruy T Bayru and Dr. Awet T Weldemichael
Ethiopians in general and the political elite in particular know that he has been Ethiopia's No. 1 enemy for the past 50 years. The only reason they are saying Isu Isu is
1. To annoy the weyanes and the principle-less short-termist my enemy's enemy is my friend sort of thinking
2. He is dangling Assab as he's been doing for the past 30 years and some think that there's some real chance that he is not lying this time around. Checkout 13:00 to 14:23 in the below video.
The gentleman who was asking the q. in the above post (Abi) used to hate Isaias for years, and all of sadden
he's fallen in love with him in 2019. But in my opinion, 99% of Ethiopians (including the Ginbot 7 guys) still believe he is Ethiopian No.1 enemy. They just want to use him to destroy TPLF. Re: Conversations on the need for Eritrean Government in Exile: Mr. Huruy T Bayru and Dr. Awet T Weldemichael
Abi:
I also believe that Isu is a whole lot stronger and stable now than during our discussion some years back.
and:
I don’t know if there is any group or groups that is ready to assume power and fill the huge gap left by Isu
Haile TG: I really like these two observations you made. I don't agree with the top one, and the second one makes you GiE spokes person
Even if what you said about the current standing of IA sounds more of a devil's advocate, it is important to note that IA is in direct conflict with US NS interests, he is being handed EU sanctions without Ethiopia (just like Ethiopia was handed Nobel prize without Eritrea), and he has been directly asked to withdraw from Tigray - he is on a borrowed time so to speak. However, there are those Eritreans (both the supporters and opposition) who appear not to grasp the urgency nor the gravity of the matter. If they reflect on this one point, then the only alternative is to prepare a half-way house by way of GiE.
Now, the reason I said that your second statement above makes you a GiE spokes person is because the very question you asked is why Eritreans are looking at the whole GiE initiative. The potential fallout from the current stand off may not give much significance to whether there is a replacement or not. If there is no replacement, well that is tough and we'll get what we will get. Is that really what Eritreans in diaspora willing to settle for? They should take heed of your casual assessment here and do all they can to avert what is in the offing.
I also believe that Isu is a whole lot stronger and stable now than during our discussion some years back.
and:
I don’t know if there is any group or groups that is ready to assume power and fill the huge gap left by Isu
Haile TG: I really like these two observations you made. I don't agree with the top one, and the second one makes you GiE spokes person
Even if what you said about the current standing of IA sounds more of a devil's advocate, it is important to note that IA is in direct conflict with US NS interests, he is being handed EU sanctions without Ethiopia (just like Ethiopia was handed Nobel prize without Eritrea), and he has been directly asked to withdraw from Tigray - he is on a borrowed time so to speak. However, there are those Eritreans (both the supporters and opposition) who appear not to grasp the urgency nor the gravity of the matter. If they reflect on this one point, then the only alternative is to prepare a half-way house by way of GiE.
Now, the reason I said that your second statement above makes you a GiE spokes person is because the very question you asked is why Eritreans are looking at the whole GiE initiative. The potential fallout from the current stand off may not give much significance to whether there is a replacement or not. If there is no replacement, well that is tough and we'll get what we will get. Is that really what Eritreans in diaspora willing to settle for? They should take heed of your casual assessment here and do all they can to avert what is in the offing.
Re: Conversations on the need for Eritrean Government in Exile: Mr. Huruy T Bayru and Dr. Awet T Weldemichael
Dear Sarcasm: No need for a Gov't in Exile while there is one at home
If there was no Eritrean Government at home, one could imagine of organizing one in exile,but It would be redundant and pointless to set up two governments (one in Eritrea and another in exile) for one set of people at the same time. There is no general need for having a Government in exile because Diaspora Eritreans live under governments of various countries. Each such a Government would handle/serve Eritreans within its jurisdiction according to applicable laws. At the same time most of the remaining needs of Eritreans in Diaspora could be addressed jointly or separately by the Diaspora and the Eritrean Government. One sees no purpose/objective of the Diaspora that could not be fulfilled by the host Government or the Eritrean Government.
There is, however, one general yearning/purpose that has yet to be fulfilled---i.e. making the State of Eritrea under the shared ownership of Eritreans at home and in Diaspora, by setting up a Constitutional Republic, in which every Eritrean participates with equality under the law. Those who now desire forming a Government in Exile have a role to play in establishing one Republic of Eritrea for all Eritreans, instead of dividing the people into two governments.
The proposer, in this case, is a member of the "Opposition". The "Opposition" needs to gather all the courage and ingenuity it could ever have and be determined to work, pragmatically, with the Government, based on a series of studied projects (political, economic, humanitarian, legal, social/cultural, prison system, healthcare, technologies/factories, anything that serves the common purposes of the Government and the Diaspora, or the State and the People, etc.) for negotiations, and make anything and everything Eritrea's better. The "Opposition" cannot force the Government do the "Opposition's" will, and shouldn't repeat the failed method of regime change, and expect a new result. As PM Abiy Ahmed of Etiyopiya once said, 'You can win over Eritreans with love and fraternity better than with military might.' Maturity demands curbing your emotions and becoming more open-minded. Be ready to change yourselves and bring greater change for Eritrea, if you can. That is what works, and increases everybody's happiness.
If there was no Eritrean Government at home, one could imagine of organizing one in exile,but It would be redundant and pointless to set up two governments (one in Eritrea and another in exile) for one set of people at the same time. There is no general need for having a Government in exile because Diaspora Eritreans live under governments of various countries. Each such a Government would handle/serve Eritreans within its jurisdiction according to applicable laws. At the same time most of the remaining needs of Eritreans in Diaspora could be addressed jointly or separately by the Diaspora and the Eritrean Government. One sees no purpose/objective of the Diaspora that could not be fulfilled by the host Government or the Eritrean Government.
There is, however, one general yearning/purpose that has yet to be fulfilled---i.e. making the State of Eritrea under the shared ownership of Eritreans at home and in Diaspora, by setting up a Constitutional Republic, in which every Eritrean participates with equality under the law. Those who now desire forming a Government in Exile have a role to play in establishing one Republic of Eritrea for all Eritreans, instead of dividing the people into two governments.
The proposer, in this case, is a member of the "Opposition". The "Opposition" needs to gather all the courage and ingenuity it could ever have and be determined to work, pragmatically, with the Government, based on a series of studied projects (political, economic, humanitarian, legal, social/cultural, prison system, healthcare, technologies/factories, anything that serves the common purposes of the Government and the Diaspora, or the State and the People, etc.) for negotiations, and make anything and everything Eritrea's better. The "Opposition" cannot force the Government do the "Opposition's" will, and shouldn't repeat the failed method of regime change, and expect a new result. As PM Abiy Ahmed of Etiyopiya once said, 'You can win over Eritreans with love and fraternity better than with military might.' Maturity demands curbing your emotions and becoming more open-minded. Be ready to change yourselves and bring greater change for Eritrea, if you can. That is what works, and increases everybody's happiness.
sarcasm wrote: ↑21 Mar 2021, 19:49I have jotted down some points from live discussions at Awate. Given the evolving external dynamics, the demise of Isaias & Co. can happen faster than expected.
Abi: Now, my question is which force/ forces are formidable enough to restore order and insure the continuity of government after Isu?
What made you change your ኃይለኛ mind now despite Isu has millions more supporters south of the border (in Ethiopia) instead of determined and capable enemies?
Haile TG: The regime of IA (Isaias Afeworki) has now entered a stage that we always feared. All variables indicate that his hold on power hangs in the question, Eritrean future appears to be predicated on outcomes of behind closed door deliberations of outsiders. The millions more supporters of IA south of the border are sure lukewarm in defending him when the one-million tonnes train of global condemnation is hurling towards him. To say that there is "credible evidence of Eritrean atrocity" and "we haven't invited them" doesn't ring anything more than a bamboo stick wall for a support:)
Now that Eritrea is likely to undergo some change anyway, what would be the point to call for uprising and turmoil? Those were needed under the assumption that it was proving difficult to dislodge a regime supported by koboro junkies (copy rights SGJ) who would accuse us of treason for advocating for Lampedusa tragedy of refugees but equally accuse us of the same for not advocating for Tigray tragedy of refugees! We were faced with cult following beyond our means to rehabilitate, thus I called and supported for civil uprising to force change. Now, the Sh$t has hit the fan and change is within sight, it would be equally prudent to adjust the call towards that which plays in Eritrea's greatest advantage.
Finally, the means of change is tactics, it is not the strategic end in itself, hence changing and fine tuning tactics is the right thing to do. This is why we are calling for all opposition and the Eritrean public at large to support the creation of Eritrean Government in Exile and our neighbors to extend the same curtesy to the Eritrean people as they do to their beloved Issu.
https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php? ... 1601860158
https://fb.watch/4nAw597ixB/
Re: Conversations on the need for Eritrean Government in Exile: Mr. Huruy T Bayru and Dr. Awet T Weldemichael
Hi YAY,YAY wrote: ↑21 Mar 2021, 23:21Dear Sarcasm: No need for a Gov't in Exile while there is one at home
If there was no Eritrean Government at home, one could imagine of organizing one in exile,but It would be redundant and pointless to set up two governments (one in Eritrea and another in exile) for one set of people at the same time. There is no general need for having a Government in exile because Diaspora Eritreans live under governments of various countries. Each such a Government would handle/serve Eritreans within its jurisdiction according to applicable laws. At the same time most of the remaining needs of Eritreans in Diaspora could be addressed jointly or separately by the Diaspora and the Eritrean Government. One sees no purpose/objective of the Diaspora that could not be fulfilled by the host Government or the Eritrean Government.
There is, however, one general yearning/purpose that has yet to be fulfilled---i.e. making the State of Eritrea under the shared ownership of Eritreans at home and in Diaspora, by setting up a Constitutional Republic, in which every Eritrean participates with equality under the law. Those who now desire forming a Government in Exile have a role to play in establishing one Republic of Eritrea for all Eritreans, instead of dividing the people into two governments.
The proposer, in this case, is a member of the "Opposition". The "Opposition" needs to gather all the courage and ingenuity it could ever have and be determined to work, pragmatically, with the Government, based on a series of studied projects (political, economic, humanitarian, legal, social/cultural, prison system, healthcare, technologies/factories, anything that serves the common purposes of the Government and the Diaspora, or the State and the People, etc.) for negotiations, and make anything and everything Eritrea's better. The "Opposition" cannot force the Government do the "Opposition's" will, and shouldn't repeat the failed method of regime change, and expect a new result. As PM Abiy Ahmed of Etiyopiya once said, 'You can win over Eritreans with love and fraternity better than with military might.' Maturity demands curbing your emotions and becoming more open-minded. Be ready to change yourselves and bring greater change for Eritrea, if you can. That is what works, and increases everybody's happiness.
sarcasm wrote: ↑21 Mar 2021, 19:49I have jotted down some points from live discussions at Awate. Given the evolving external dynamics, the demise of Isaias & Co. can happen faster than expected.
Abi: Now, my question is which force/ forces are formidable enough to restore order and insure the continuity of government after Isu?
What made you change your ኃይለኛ mind now despite Isu has millions more supporters south of the border (in Ethiopia) instead of determined and capable enemies?
Haile TG: The regime of IA (Isaias Afeworki) has now entered a stage that we always feared. All variables indicate that his hold on power hangs in the question, Eritrean future appears to be predicated on outcomes of behind closed door deliberations of outsiders. The millions more supporters of IA south of the border are sure lukewarm in defending him when the one-million tonnes train of global condemnation is hurling towards him. To say that there is "credible evidence of Eritrean atrocity" and "we haven't invited them" doesn't ring anything more than a bamboo stick wall for a support:)
Now that Eritrea is likely to undergo some change anyway, what would be the point to call for uprising and turmoil? Those were needed under the assumption that it was proving difficult to dislodge a regime supported by koboro junkies (copy rights SGJ) who would accuse us of treason for advocating for Lampedusa tragedy of refugees but equally accuse us of the same for not advocating for Tigray tragedy of refugees! We were faced with cult following beyond our means to rehabilitate, thus I called and supported for civil uprising to force change. Now, the Sh$t has hit the fan and change is within sight, it would be equally prudent to adjust the call towards that which plays in Eritrea's greatest advantage.
Finally, the means of change is tactics, it is not the strategic end in itself, hence changing and fine tuning tactics is the right thing to do. This is why we are calling for all opposition and the Eritrean public at large to support the creation of Eritrean Government in Exile and our neighbors to extend the same curtesy to the Eritrean people as they do to their beloved Issu.
https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php? ... 1601860158
https://fb.watch/4nAw597ixB/
The GiE initiative is not to replace the government in Asmara, right now, and start to collect taxes and provide services. It is to prepare an alternative organized body representing Eritrean opposition parties so that international bodies and other governments can start discussing post-Isiaias Eritrea.
I don't know how much you know about the relationship between Isaias & Co. and the Eritrean people, but it is not what anyone would consider normal in the rest of the world. It is more like a relationship between a slave owner and its slaves. I think the opposition would not discuss GiE if there was a 0.001% chance of "setting up a Constitutional Republic, in which every Eritrean participates with equality under the law" while Isaias & Co. are in power.
Re: Conversations on the need for Eritrean Government in Exile: Mr. Huruy T Bayru and Dr. Awet T Weldemichael
Here's a summary by Saleh who initiated the idea of GiE.
"The Herui Tedla Bairou-Dr.Awet debate was later on joined by Dr. Amanuel Mehreteab and Dr. Araya Debessay. It is 2 1/2 hours long so for those who didn't watch it and won't be able to, here's the takeaway:
1. Herui T Bairou: a government in exile is necessary, because no foreign power is going to talk to exiled opposition because they can't differentiate between armed groups and liberation movement, but it should not be a coalition of Jebha-Shaebia Schools of Thought. (His question: "WHAT school of thought" was not adequately answered, which we have to work on.) And he wants it known that he introduced the idea of GiE back in 2002 (which he did.)
2. Dr. Awet was invited to address the drawbacks of GiE which he did. Of all the guests, I think he stuck closest to the agenda of the meeting: discuss the pros and cons of GiE.
3. Dr. Amanuel, who was a listener who was invited to speak, said he prefers something other than government - a Council of Diaspora--one that has nothing to do with Jebha-Shaebia.
4. Dr. Araya Debessay believes there is already a grassroots movement which is structured from city, country and now global (Yiakl Bayto.)
It was a conversation of the educated and literate, a welcome break from the screechers and flag-wrapped-clowns."
I tend to agree with Dr. Araya Debessay.
"The Herui Tedla Bairou-Dr.Awet debate was later on joined by Dr. Amanuel Mehreteab and Dr. Araya Debessay. It is 2 1/2 hours long so for those who didn't watch it and won't be able to, here's the takeaway:
1. Herui T Bairou: a government in exile is necessary, because no foreign power is going to talk to exiled opposition because they can't differentiate between armed groups and liberation movement, but it should not be a coalition of Jebha-Shaebia Schools of Thought. (His question: "WHAT school of thought" was not adequately answered, which we have to work on.) And he wants it known that he introduced the idea of GiE back in 2002 (which he did.)
2. Dr. Awet was invited to address the drawbacks of GiE which he did. Of all the guests, I think he stuck closest to the agenda of the meeting: discuss the pros and cons of GiE.
3. Dr. Amanuel, who was a listener who was invited to speak, said he prefers something other than government - a Council of Diaspora--one that has nothing to do with Jebha-Shaebia.
4. Dr. Araya Debessay believes there is already a grassroots movement which is structured from city, country and now global (Yiakl Bayto.)
It was a conversation of the educated and literate, a welcome break from the screechers and flag-wrapped-clowns."
I tend to agree with Dr. Araya Debessay.