Mereja.Forum

[Fiyameta]

Famous Australian documentary film maker, John Pilger begins this documentary with the following remarks:

"Remember LiveAid in 1985 that symbol of concern and generosity (for Tigray), did you know that during that year the hungriest countries in Africa gave twice as much money to us in the developed world as we gave to them? All the money given in aid to the poor countries, had come back to the rich countries. Every day millions of dollars are given by the poor to the rich, as interest payments on loans most of them never asked for, or knew existed. In other words, contrary to the myth long popular in the West, it's been the poorest people in the world who finance the rich, and not the other way around."

War By Other Means - John Pilger - Documentary

[TesfaNews]

One way of looking at what is driving western response to the crisis in Tigray

Let's compare what's going on in Tigray with that in Yemen. Indulge me please. It will provide a broader perspective.


Situation in Yemen VS Tigray
Yemen

• War going on for 5 years Conflict going on for 4 months.
  Tens of thousands of dead
  Tens of thousands wounded
  literal famine
  Plenty of crimes (war crimes, crimes against humanity)
  Massive damage to infrastructure and economy
  

Western Response to the situation in Yemen and Tigray - A little more detail

Yemen
Deals worth more than one hundred billion USD in weapons sales from US to Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). **This is an endorsement of the war. Arms sales worth tens of billions from UK and France to KSA. endorsement A few hundred million USD worth of weapons sales from Germany to KSA. But they were making protests about it and I think at some point they blocked it (after skimming some ofc). **endorsement**. USA provided Arial refueling services, targeting info, training to KSA. **endorsement**. USA along with KSA and the gulf countries conducts a naval blockade of Yemen. The stated aim is to prevent Iranian weapons from being smuggled in, but blockade affects civilian economic activity as well. The EU is okay with it. F\*\*k the civies. **endorsement**. Hysterical calls for access to the area. Not presented to UNSC (As far as I know). endorsement. Presented to UNSC twice by European countries. Because they really really care about what's going on in Tigray.
No tears from politicians about civilian suffering. "Grave" concern from western politicians and diplomats about the "deteriorating" situation in Tigray and the horn of africa.|
|Very little to none existing media coverage.|It's not exactly a lot but It's still considerably more than the coverage of Yemen's conflict. Of course this could be because I follow the situation in Tigray more closely than the situation in Yemen. There could be a bias on my part. UN mostly silent|More talk from UN|


So why is it the west seems largely okay with a regional war in Yemen but seem distinctly not okay with a relatively less complex mostly internal conflict in Ethiopia?



The obvious answer is of course KSA's wealth and their importance in the world of energy geopolitics.

Geopolitics > $$$ > People's lives.**

Not very flattering image but also not surprising.

Ethiopia's geopolitical importance to the west on the other hand is with "exporting stability" to the rest of the region and not much else. (Coffee and flower can be grown unlike oil) There is a major issue at play that makes them okay with war in Yemen but oppose it in Ethiopia. **That's mass migration. Yemen is bordered in the north by the KSA, Oman to the East and the Red sea and Indian ocean to the east and south respectively. KSA has closed its border to them. The Al Qaeda dominated desert area of Eastern Yemen makes travel to east hard. Oman also won't allow any large movement of migrants. The sea passages are largely blocked. What little that are allowed to pass come to Djibouti and Ethiopia (A lot of them get mistaken for Syrians). There is little to no risk of mass migration from Yemen to Europe.



Ethiopia is an entirely different story. There are established paths and a thriving smuggling industry that takes people from all over Africa to Europe. People move from Ethiopia or Eritrea to landing stops in Sudan. Once there, a network of smugglers traffic them across Sudan into Libya and then they will be jam packed loaded into disposable boats for the short hop across the Mediterranean to be thrown at Europe's mercy.



Why is Europe Very Loud?

The Syrian mass migration that happened some years ago has seriously soured European politics. People do not like outsiders, especially the poor, And Europeans are no exception. That event has given a major boost to Far right, nationalist, Anti EU sentiment in most EU countries. Especially so in Germany and countries like Hungary. The German chancellor's popularity tanked, Hungary and Poland are led by far right politics. Anti immigration fear is dominant on all countries. I think it's one of the major contributing factor to Brexit. A shift of public sentiment towards the right is a direct threat to the European unification project (Which is a project they hope would put them on the map on a projected future dominated by China and US tug of war).

They have seen the number of migrants that can come out of a relatively small countries like Eritrea and Syria. IMO they will do what they can to stop Ethiopia from becoming a source. And Both Sudan and Libya are unstable countries that cannot be relied upon to close their borders to migration. I think the Europeans see the prevention of large migration as critical to the survival of the EU and their way of life. I think they would do everything in their power to prevent the possibility of mass migration from a large and populace country like Ethiopia to their borders. I think they want the imposition of order in Ethiopia and the horn by whatever means. And this interest of theirs imo supersedes justice, democracy, good governance in the horn....

​

In contrast, USA isn't fussing much. It doesn't affect them. In fact, the only reason Biden is speaking up somewhat is because he's trying to reassert US leadership over the west (read Europe) which deteriorated severely under Trump. They did say "USA IS BACK". But even though USA's voice has a lot more weight in Ethiopia than Europe's, they have not pushed(compared to their capability).


**The flip-side**

European desire to avoid destabilization and mass migration is one of the influencing factors that can hopefully prevent war with Sudan/Egypt over the border issue and over Abay. If the Europeans have their way, they would have us moderately prosperous so we are not a source of mass migration, but sufficiently weak and cowed that we won't negatively affect Sudan/Egypt to an extent that they migrate.


Ethiopia's response

Abiy's administration has completely outplayed TPLF. But they have gotten the international messaging wrong. Of course, given the stakes, there is no assurance his admin can give that would assuage their fear. But going forward, focusing more on combating illegal mass movement of people across borders, and publicizing this effort would help reduce external pressure on the long term far better than twitter campaigns. TPLF messaging is probably more successful because it taps into inherent fears of Europe.

For all the west's and especially Europe's talk about human rights and human suffering, it's the least of their consideration(see Yemen). They're more concerned with money, power and preventing mass migration.

xo

[Fiyameta]

Back to the title of this thread: WHY IS THERE SO MUCH FUSS ABOUT THE USELESS TIGRAY?

Tigray made a name for itself by its TPLF-made famine of 1985, that was designed to enrich the developed world through the trading of western food-aid for access to plunge Ethiopia into a debt trap it could not escape from. The TPLF and their supporters never saw themselves as Ethiopians, so it was easier for them to enslave Ethiopia by foreign debt in exchange for food-aid to feed their Tigray population.

The ascension of PM Abiy to power through a well planned and executed silent coup, and his ability to secure $1 billion dollars from the UAE to keep the loan sharks at bay, has made him a very unpopular African leader in the eyes of the international banking cartels who, for the last 30 years have been dumping expired food aid worth $1 on Ethiopia and, in return, squeezed out billions of dollars out of the heavily indebted country in the form of debt payments and interests.

The TPLF junta played a vital role in facilitating the exploitation of Ethiopia by debt. It is this exploitation that is missing today under PM Abiy's leadership, which has unsettled the banking cartels that are now desperately trying to revive the TPLF back to life, when there's zero probability of that happening. Yes, we can say, with 100 percent certainty, that will never ever happen!

[Fiyameta]