@wdavison10
Why we should take seriously concerns of impending mass starvation in Tigray.
Tigray interim admin appointed by fed govt say >4.5m from pop. ca.6m need urgent aid; some already starving to death.
Fed govt, however, claims it’s under control.
Key considerations:
Politically, fed govt says war over and it’s chasing criminals.
So, it’s not close to acknowledging ongoing conflict and that federal forces don't control swaths of Tigray.
Latter indicated by ground reports, and by failure to restore telecoms, grant aid and media access.
Re. humanitarian principles, fed govt’s party to conflict.
So, agencies want autonomy and worry govt won’t deliver aid to areas that are its opponents’ stronghold.
Access still denied at fed level—there’s backlog of aid agency requests. Some negotiating access regionally.
Instead, fed govt say controls Tigray, can handle distribution.
But Abraha Desta, interim official and TPLF opponent, explains: insecurity rife, govt structures “dismantled”, making delivery hard during what he terms a “famine”— this shows need for major aid agency role.
Also worth considering Eritrean forces dominant in much of northern Tigray and that interim govt has no admin control in most of west and south, complicating picture.
Here fed govt speaks of “delicate and cautious balance” between “basic necessities” and security in Tigray:
All suggests situation may worsen.
Unless:
1.Fed govt significantly extends territorial control. Aid delivery will expand with that.
2.Fed govt rethinks, allows unhindered access or let's agencies negotiate access with Tigray forces.[/size][/b]
1’s possible but unlikely. No sign of 2
Continuation of status quo thus appears most probable—which is why we should take seriously the concerns of impending mass starvation in Tigray.
